IHS Report Says EPA Greenhouse Gas Formula Flawed

From K.B. Battaglini of GT Houston:

Just weeks after EPA proposed new regulations to cut greenhouse gas emissions produced by natural gas drilling, a leading energy group issued a report claiming that EPA overestimated the amount of methane thought to be flared or vented from gas drilling operations.  According to the report from IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS CERA), EPA used out-of-context data sets and poor assumptions, and erroneously doubled its greenhouse gas estimates in 2010.  Written by IHS CERA directors Mary Lashley Barcella, Samantha Gross and Surya Rajan, the report argues that upstream greenhouse gas emissions that appear to make the production of natural gas seem bad for the environment are based on a fundamentally flawed EPA formula.  IHS CERA argues that EPA overstated both the problem and the effect of new regulations. 

AEP v. Connecticut: No Public Nuisance Claim For GHG Emissions

As mentioned earlier, the United States Supreme Court, in AEP v. Connecticut, No. 10-174, had before it the issue of whether state attorneys general or environmental groups may sue owners of fossil-fuel-fired power plants under the federal common law of public nuisance for the plants' alleged contribution to climate change.  On June 20, the Supreme Court issued its opinion, which by a vote of 8-0 (Sotomayor, J. recused) found the Clean Air Act displaced any right to bring a public nuisance claim.

EPA Postpones Deadline for Reporting 2010 GHG Emissions

From Stephen Jones of GT Philadelphia:

On March 1, 2011, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) postponed indefinitely its deadline for companies to report their 2010 emissions of greenhouse gases. Pursuant to a rule issued by EPA in October 2009, sources of greenhouse gases emitting more than 25,000 metric tons annually of carbon dioxide-equivalent were required to begin measuring their emissions on January 1, 2010, and to report them for the first time on or before March 31, 2011. According to EPA, approximately 10,000 facilities in the country were affected by this rule. According to reports of EPA's action yesterday, the reporting deadline was delayed because EPA's electronic reporting tool was not ready and needed more testing. EPA indicates that a new deadline will be announced before March 31. Given the reported schedule for completing the reporting tool, the new deadline likely is to be early summer.
 

Murkowski Resolution To Stop EPA Fails On Party-Line Vote

The Senate has voted 47-53 to reject a resolution introduced by Sen. Lisa Murkowski  (S.J. Res. 26) to block EPA regulation of greenhouse gases.  Every Senate Republican, and six Democrats, supported the Resolution, which would have effectively killed EPA's efforts to promulgate and implement its new GHG regulations.  The Obama Administration, supported by environmentalists and business who stand to profit from carbon trading and carbon controls, lobbied hard to defeat the Resolution to preserve EPA's power and support its aggressive regulatory agenda and to increase the pressure on Congress to pass a cap and trade bill

You should expect to see the following: (1) The EPA's aggressive regulations will be a major campaign issue during the upcoming Congressional elections.  The opponents' ad message may likely be  "unelected bureaucrats are killing jobs and crippling the economy without improving the environment".  (2) More pressure from the Administration on one or two wavering Republicans to break a potential filibuster and thus to pass cap and trade.  The message will be cap and trade, plus the other incentives in Kerry-Lieberman, are the last best chance "to save the economy from EPA."   

Big News? US Chamber Supports Murkowski Bill

The US Chamber of Commerce has announced its support for S.J. Res. 26, sponsored by Sens. Murkowski and Lincoln to prevent EPA from implementing any GHG rules.   The Chamber's decision to support this measure, coming hard on the heels of the Kerry-Lieberman energy bill roll out and the final EPA GHG rule, suggests there now may be enough votes to get the Resolution passed.  The political waters are becoming extremely murky. 

More On The GHG Rule.

The EPA GHG Rule is 16 pages long, but it is accompanied by 499 pages of explanation and justification.  This is the EPA website link  to a copy of the rule, a fact sheet, and an implementation time line.  Here is a summary and a brief analysis based on a quick first read and an EPA telephone briefing.  

To begin with, EPA admits that the Clean Air Act PSD and title V requirements presumptively apply, as of January 2, 2011, at the 100 or 250 tons per year (tpy) levels of CO2 or its equivalent ("CO2e").  On its face, this means just about every business, restaurant, and apartment building in the country is theoretically subject to EPA permits and control.  (p.15).  Therefore,  ostensibly for reasons of administrative convenience, the agency is attempting to buy time by "tailoring" the GHG rule to phase in the permitting requirements.  Thus, the rule bites in stages.  

Step 1 - beginning January 2, 2011, facilities currently subject to Clean Air Act new source review (primarily power plants and refineries) and that also will emit or will have the potential to emit 75,000 tpy CO2e or more, and existing major stationary source for a regulated NSR pollutant that is not GHGs, and also will have an emissions increase of a regulated NSR pollutant, and an emissions increase of 75,000 tpy CO2e or more, are subject to EPA GHG regulation, including PSD.

Step 2 - beginning July 1, 2011, EPA phases in additional large sources of GHG emissions. New sources as well as existing sources not already subject to title V that emit, or have the potential to emit, at least 100,000 tpy CO2e will become subject to the PSD and title V requirements. In addition, sources that emit or have the potential to emit at least 100,000 tpy CO2e and that undertake a modification that increases net emissions of GHGs by at least 75,000 tpy CO2 will also be subject to PSD requirements.  EPA said on the briefing call this will capture at least 550 new facilities, "mainly" municipal landfills, plus 900 additional PSD permits.  

Step 3 – EPA will “solicit comment” on lower GHGs thresholds for PSD applicability and issue a small source rule by July 1, 2013.  EPA has promised not to regulate emitters of less than 50,000 tpy CO2e until this "small source" rule is final.

Step 4 - No later than April 30, 2015 EPA shall complete a study projecting the administrative burdens that remain with respect to all other sources.  EPA promises to issue a small sources rule no later than April 30, 2016.  EPA says "We cannot say at this point how close to the statutory thresholds we will eventually reach. Because this rule establishes only the first two phases of the tailoring approach, we do not find it necessary to answer these questions in this rule, and instead we expect to resolve them through future rulemaking."  It also reserves the right to "exempt" small sources from regulation altogether, based on findings of "absurd results" and "administrative necessity."  

So what does this all mean?  Well, the battle over regulation of the corner pizza shop is not over.  For starters, EPA acknowledges the tailoring rule is actually an agency re-write of the Clean Air Act.  The EPA's legal rationale for its tailoring authority is essentially that the Congress intended to regulate CO2 in the Clean Air Act, on the one hand, but that the Congress did not intend to require permits for CO2 emitters who exceed the plain 100 tpy and 200 tpy thresholds written into the statute, on the other.  Therefore, EPA argues that applying the statute as written would lead to absurd results and is forclosed by administrative necessity.  Given the absence of supportive statutory language, EPA's logic will require a judge to make an extensive analytic reach. Furthermore, it is critical to note that the agency does not promise to exempt small sources, it simply defers potential regulation for the moment (and until what would be the  second Obama term).

The initial focus of EPA's actions are power plants, refineries, and iron and steel mills.  If past is prologue, then EPA's regulations will mean more expensive electricity, more expensive fuel, and accelerated movement of heavy manufacturing jobs off-shore.  As EPA expands its reach over more of the economy, these economic impacts will be amplified.  EPA, however, dodges an economic impact analysis by asserting "this action is a burden relief rule and as such it does not create any new requirements for sources in the energy supply, distribution, or use sectors." (p.484)

Finally, notably missing from EPA's analysis is any discussion of the environmental benefits associated with the regulatory burden.  This could be because EPA's rules will not reduce (or even materially slow) the increase in US CO2 levels caused by rapidly increasing emissions from China, India, Mexico, Brazil, and other Third World countries.

EPA GHG Rule Is Out

EPA's long-anticipated GHG emissions rule is out.  For the first six months of 2011, GHG PSD  requirements are limited to stationary sources that already must comply with its requirements for other pollutants.  These facilities will be required to include greenhouse gas emissions in their PSD permit if they increase those emissions by 75,000 tons per year.  Starting in July 2011, the tailoring rule will apply PSD requirements to new sources that emit more than 100,000 tons per year of carbon dioxide-equivalent and to modified sources that emit more than 75,000 tons per year.  

Expect environmental groups to sue because EPA's rule sets limits that are contrary to the plain language of the Clean Air Act.

More on this Rule to come.

EPA GHG Regulations - This Is Huge.

EPA today took action to aggressively advance the Administration's regulatory agenda and expand its control over the economy, despite Congress, and in defiance of the many lawsuits challenging the predicate endangerment determination.  EPA regulatory Notice is 115 pages long.  It is accompanied by a six page explanatory Fact Sheet.  The Notice is tremendously significant with far-reaching consequences and requires careful analysis.  What becomes immediately clear is that the Fact Sheet does not capture the economy-wide scope and ramifications of EPA's actions.  According to EPA, Clean Air Act PSD permit requirements for cars, light trucks and what EPA calls "larger emitting facilities", i.e., power plants, refineries, large office and apartment buildings, factories, and, if environmental groups are successful in their litigation strategy, potentially all other sources emitting more than 300 tons of CO2 a year, will be triggered in January 2011

More to follow in a couple days.

Supremes Deny Cert In Seventh Circuit Case Limiting Citizen Suit Standing

The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected a cert petition in the environmental citizen suit case of Pollack v. United States, 577 F.3d 736 (7th Cir. 2009).  The U.S. Seventh Circuit Court of Appeal held the plaintiff lacked standing to sue for remediation of a government gun range because he failed to demonstrate actual harm due to alleged contamination.  

Environmental advocacy groups historically have used citizen suits in lieu of legislation to advance policy goals. In many cases, these policy suits are based on very broad and non-specific allegations of harm, or even mere fears of potential harm. Pollack, however, holds that “Without some support for the assertion that he will be affected by the drift of polluted sediment or water, [plaintiff] has not shown that he has standing to pursue this lawsuit.”   

In many citizen suit cases, proof of standing is tantamount to a victory on the merits.  Pollack is significant because it places genuine scientific limits standing and, by extension, environmental citizen suits generally.  However, as the concurring opinion points out, “the Supreme Court's case law on this subject is both unclear in purpose and extraordinarily difficult to reconcile."  Consequently, Pollack's long term fate is unclear.  For now, at least, Pollack provides GHG emitters with a defense against the environmental groups' promised citizen suit litigation assault.

The Farmers Speak - CO2 Bipartisanship In Action.

Rep. Ike Skelton, D. MO., Rep. Colin Peterson, D. MN, and Rep. JoAnn Emerson, R. MO, have introduced H.J. Res. 76, a resolution to disapprove and block EPA from regulating GHG's based on the endangerment finding.   Skelton and Peterson are typically described as "centrist Democrats" and both are from rural districts.  

This could prove to be a significant development.  Skelton is chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.  Peterson is chairman of the House Agriculture Committee.   Their action follows a letter from the powerful American Farm Bureau Federation to all House members on February 19 stating:

Farm Bureau urges members on both sides of the aisle to avoid partisan fights and to work constructively, in a bipartisan fashion, to halt impending EPA regulation that holds the prospect of critically injuring the U.S. economy.  Farmers and ranchers across the country are watching this issue closely for meaningful support.

Stay tuned.

Letters, Just For Show?

Sen. Jay Rockefeller and several other coal state Democrats sent a letter to EPA's Lisa Jackson dated February 19, expressing concern regarding the economic impact of GHG regulation. Jackson responded on February 22, stating no permits would be required in 2010 and detailing an aggressive "Five Year Plan" for regulating CO2 sources.  The same day, Sen. Rockefeller issued a press release saying the Plan was "good progress" but that he remained "concerned" and that Congress needed to "set in stone through legislation enough time" to consider a "comprehensive energy bill" (the new euphemism for legislative GHG controls via cap and trade).

Was this all just political kabuki, choreographed to fog the optics and protect exposed Democrats from "cap and tax" backlash in the November elections?  And what should be made of a statement by an environmental group operative, about a week before Jackson's letter was issued, revealing the Five Year Plan?  Well, it could be the Rockefeller - Jackson letters likely were "worked out" by both parties ahead of time.  This would explain why EPA responded as quickly as it did.  Also, the White House makes EPA policy and the White House is working hand in glove with the environmental special interests.  Therefore, it should not surprise anyone that EPA's Plan was "put out there" by one of these groups - in fact, they likely helped write that Plan in the first place.

Or so some people say.